Q4 2025
Key Takeaways: Staying Anchored in 2025
In my football days, one of the biggest lessons I learned was to control what you can control, and stick to the game plan—especially when the crowd is screaming the loudest against you.
2025 tested every investor’s ability to do exactly that.
When the Script Flips
If you relied on headlines alone, you likely missed the story.
Throughout most of 2025, the dominant narrative sounded familiar:
Tariffs will derail us all!
AI will drive markets indefinitely!
U.S. businesses will dominate forever!
Everything else was noise.
But markets rarely reward consensus for long.
While commentary focused on what might happen next, the numbers quietly told a different story—one that unfolded without fanfare and without a single dramatic catalyst.
At Julius Wealth Advisors, we didn’t just observe that shift.
We prepared for it.
International Markets: Running Into the Wind—Until They Didn’t
For more than a decade, owning international stocks felt like running uphill.
U.S. exceptionalism wasn’t just a belief, it was a lived experience.
Then in 2025 the wind shifted.
International equities (as measured by MSCI ACWI ex-U.S.) outperformed the S&P 500 by 14.54%, marking the widest gap in more than 10 years.
This wasn’t a referendum on America, it was a valuation reset.
When expectations and valuations get compressed enough—and pessimism becomes consensus—markets don’t need perfection to surprise. They just need “less bad than feared.”
The lesson is an old one:
The best opportunities often begin where enthusiasm has already left the room.
Small Caps: The Benchwarmers Get Their Call
The second half of 2025 delivered another important shift: market participation broadened.
For years, small-cap stocks had been the forgotten part of the roster—underperforming, underappreciated, and largely ignored.
As interest-rate uncertainty stabilized and acquisition activity quietly picked up, smaller companies finally found their footing.
This matters more than it sounds.
A market carried by seven names is fragile.
A market supported by hundreds of businesses is resilient.
Breadth isn’t exciting. It doesn’t trend on social media.
But historically, it’s one of the healthiest signs a market can offer.
Tech Concentration: Loud Trends Fade Quietly
None of this diminishes the quality of America’s largest technology companies. They remain extraordinary businesses.
But markets don’t only price quality, they price expectations.
You need both quality and price to make a solid long-term investment.
Throughout 2025, we intentionally reduced portfolio concentration in megacap technology—not because innovation stalled, but because valuations left little margin for disappointment.
By late in the year, the market began to rediscover a familiar truth:
Even great companies don’t outperform forever.
Cooling leadership wasn’t a failure of technology; it was a reminder that dominance rotates—and concentration eventually corrects.
What We’re Watching As 2026 Begins
Every market shift raises the same core question:
Was this a one-year anomaly or the start of a new cycle?
As we move into 2026, three areas deserve attention:
Leadership Cycles:
Is international leadership durable, or simply early? History suggests these rotations rarely resolve in a single year.
AI’s Maturity Phase:
The excitement hasn’t disappeared, but capital is becoming more selective. The market is beginning to ask harder questions about returns, not just potential.
Market Breadth:
Can the “other 493” companies continue to participate? Durable markets aren’t built on a single theme; they’re built on contribution.
These aren’t predictions, they’re guideposts.
What This Means for You: Building by Choice, Not Chance
Everything that unfolded in 2025 reinforces why portfolios were managed the way they were.
We didn’t chase narratives.
We managed risk.
Tech exposure was intentionally trimmed to avoid over-reliance on a single outcome.
Quality and price remained the focus, regardless of geography or market cap.
Diversification was maintained, not as a slogan, but as a discipline.
Headlines obsess over the scoreboard; we stay focused on the strength of the team.
Success isn’t about guessing the next storyline; it’s about owning high-quality businesses at reasonable prices that can perform across different environments.
Looking Ahead
Markets will continue to surprise—they always do. The job isn’t to eliminate uncertainty, it’s to prepare for it.
At Julius Wealth Advisors, we don’t build portfolios around how investors feel today.
We build them for how the world is likely to evolve tomorrow.
Wealth isn’t built by reacting, it’s built by preparing.
By Choice, Not Chance.
Truly Yours,
Jason Blumstein, CFA
CEO & Founder
Julius Wealth Advisors, LLC
Let’s Position Wisely—Before the Next Turn
This is the part of the cycle where proactive decisions quietly compound, and reactive ones quietly erode progress.
As we enter the new year, we’ll be reviewing portfolios to ensure allocations remain aligned with long-term objectives, not short-term noise.
Smart strategy wins the long game.
Let’s keep building—thoughtfully, patiently, and together.
Disclosures:This piece contains general information that is not suitable for everyone and was prepared for informational purposes only. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or as an offer to provide investment advice. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee any future results. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. For additional information about Julius Wealth Advisors, including its services and fees, contact us or visit adviserinfo.sec.gov.