Episode 40

Rent vs. Buy: A $6.2M Decision?!?!

Episode Description

Thinking about buying a home in 2025?

You might want to hit pause...

In this episode of The Big Bo $how: 360° No-Nonsense Wealth Building Wisdom, Jason Blumstein, CFA, CEO & and Founder of Julius Wealth Advisors, breaks down one of the biggest financial myths out there:

“If you rent, you're throwing money away.”

Spoiler: The math tells a very different story.

From record-low housing affordability and rising mortgage rates to ballooning ownership costs, Jason walks you through how one client could potentially generate $6.2 million in long-term wealth by renting and investing the difference.

You’ll walk away with:

• A step-by-step Rent vs. Buy decision-making framework

• Clarity on the true costs of homeownership

• Guidance on how to invest the difference strategically

• And a powerful reminder from Steph Curry’s 2016 NBA Finals collapse on how staying calm under pressure creates real wins

Whether you're earning six figures and feeling real estate FOMO, questioning your next move, or looking to make smarter money decisions, this episode gives you the clarity and confidence to play your wealth game right.

Episode Transcript

What if I told you that buying a home right now might be one of the worst wealth-building decisions you could make? And what if I told you that renting—yes, renting—could actually be your smartest financial play?

I know, I know. That goes against everything we’ve been taught:

“If you rent, you're throwing money away.”
“Real estate only goes up.”
“Owning a home is the American dream.”

But let’s get real:

In 2025, the math doesn’t math.

In today’s episode of The Big Bo $how, I’m breaking down:

• Why the housing market feels upside-down.

• What real homeownership costs look like today.

• And how a client of mine could generate $6.2 million by simply… not buying.

And in our Bo Know$ segment, I’m bringing in Steph Curry and the 2016 NBA Finals to show you how patience, strategy, and staying cool under pressure can lead to long-term wins—on the court and in your wealth.

Ready? Let’s dive in.

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  Alright, let’s talk about the housing market…Because right now? It’s strange. It’s frustrating. And honestly—it’s kind of frozen.

  You’ve got people with great incomes, strong credit, solid down payments…And yet, I see them blindly assuming home ownership is what they should be considering.

  They aren’t asking:

  “Should I even buy a home right now?”
  “Am I making a huge mistake if I keep renting?”

  So in this segment, I want to break down exactly what’s happening—because the market isn’t just off—it’s upside-down.

  
  Let’s start with demand.

  In theory, demand should be booming right now.

  • Unemployment is low.

  • Millennials—the largest generation in U.S. history—are hitting prime home-buying age.

  • And new households are forming every day.

  So why does it feel like nobody's moving?

  Because even though people want to buy homes…They just can’t make the math—or the emotions—work.

  Here’s why:

  Mortgage rates are hovering around 7%.
  Not crazy by historical standards…
  But after a decade of 3% and 4% rates, it feels like sticker shock.

  Get this:

  • The average monthly mortgage payment on a new home right now is nearly $3,000/month.

  • This has nearly doubled since the COVID pandemic, only 5 years ago!

  • And that’s before you factor in taxes, insurance, HOA fees, and all those fun surprises that come with homeownership.

  The result? Affordability is collapsing.

  According to the Atlanta Fed’s HOAM Index—the affordability gauge—A median-income household today would need to spend about 46% of their income to afford a median-priced home.

  For context, from a planning perspective the rule of thumb is to not spend more than 30% if your income on housing

  And, last time we were at these levels was in 2006, just prior to the housing crisis.

  That’s not just tight.
  That’s suffocating.

  Now let’s flip it: What’s happening with supply?

  Here’s where it gets really jammed up.

  • More than 50% of existing mortgages are locked in under 4%.

  • And nearly 40% of homeowners don’t have a mortgage at all.

  So guess what?

  Sellers aren’t selling. Because why would you trade in your 3% mortgage for a 7% one… just to pay more for a home that might not even be better?

  This creates what I call a “golden handcuff market.”
  People are locked into amazing financing.
  And they don’t want to give it up.

  That’s freezing the market.

  Buyers can’t stomach the prices.
  Sellers won’t walk away from their low rates.
  And agents? They’ve got fewer and fewer listings to work with.

  But here’s the kicker:Even with all that… prices aren’t falling.

  Why?

  Because we don’t have enough homes.

  According to Freddie Mac, The U.S. is short by about 3.7 million housing units. Builders can’t keep up. Permits take time. Labor costs are high. Materials are still expensive.

  And to make things worse—it could take about eight months to build a single-family home.

  This isn’t just about cost anymore.
  It’s about time and risk.

  So what we’ve got is a scarcity-driven standoff.

  And you know what happens in a standoff?
  Nobody moves.

  So if you’re feeling like the market is working against you—
  You’re not crazy.
  You’re not behind.
  And you’re not alone.

  This isn’t a you problem. It’s a market mechanics problem.

  Which brings us to a critical mindset shift…

  When the market gets this irrational?
  Patience becomes a strategy.

  If you’re thinking of buying a home right now—pause. Ask yourself:

  “Am I buying because it makes financial sense…
  or because I feel pressure to make a move?”

  If you’re renting and feeling FOMO—don’t. Because sometimes Renting is the more strategic, flexible, and financially powerful play.

  And if you already own a home with a 3% mortgage?
  You, my friend, are sitting on one of the best risk-adjusted assets in your portfolio.
  Don’t rush to trade it in.
  So what now?

  Well, here’s the good news:
  Even in a market like this, you’re not powerless.

  You may not be able to control mortgage rates… or home prices…
  But you can control your game plan.

  In the next segment, we’re going to talk about exactly how to do that.

  I’ll walk you through a real case study from a client of mine—
  Someone who could’ve bought a house for $6,800/month…
  But chose to rent for $3,400… and invest the difference.

  We ran the numbers— And the result?
  Let’s just say it’s a 7-figure wealth move.

  Stick around.
  This is where things get real interesting.

  So we’ve established the housing market is stuck in a weird limbo.
  Prices are high. Rates are high. Supply is tight.
  But here's the good news:

  You are not stuck.

  Because even if the market’s frozen, your wealth-building plan doesn’t have to be.

  This next section is about how to take control in a high-cost, low-inventory market using a framework I walk through with clients all the time.
  It’s not about fear—it’s about facts. It’s about playing offense with your financial life instead of reacting to what everyone else is doing.

  Let’s break it down.

  Step 1: Know Your Why

  Start with this simple question:

  “Why do I want to buy?”

  Is it emotional?
  Is it pressure from family or friends?
  Is it seeing someone post a picture of their new kitchen on Instagram and thinking, “I should be doing that too”?

  Or is it because you want long-term stability, a place to grow roots, raise a family, and you’re planning to be there for 10+ years?

  Look, there’s nothing wrong with owning a home.
  But there is something wrong with owning for the wrong reasons.

  Buying a home should be a strategic decision—not a reaction to social comparison or societal pressure.

  Don’t chase validation. Chase value.

  Step 2: Run the Numbers

  Now let’s talk real math.

  A recent client of mine had this scenario:

  • Buying a new home: ~$6,800/month
    (That includes mortgage, taxes, insurance, and maintenance.)

  • Renting a comparable place: ~$3,400/month

  That’s a difference of $3,400 every single month. So we ran the numbers.

  If they chose to rent and invested that $3,400/month at a 9% annual return over 30 years?

  $6.2 million.

  Let me say that again: $6.2 million—not by buying real estate, but by investing the difference.

  Even if they were more conservative:

  • At 7% return = $4.1M

  • At 5% = still nearly $3M

  This is not "skip-a-latte" math. This is multi-generational wealth territory.

  And let’s not forget the other factor:

  Most homeowners today are locked into mortgage rates below 4%.
  If you sell your home and buy again in this market?
  You’re likely trading that in for 7%—a decision that could wreck your long-term financial momentum.

  So ask yourself:

  “Is the house I’m chasing really worth giving up the deal I already have?”

  Sometimes the best move isn’t to upgrade your address.
  

  It’s to upgrade your mindset.

  Step 3: Evaluate the Timing

  Let’s zoom out.

  Even if you can afford to buy, is now the right time?

  We’re in a market where:

  • Prices are elevated

  • Rates are higher

  • Inventory is tight

  • And migration patterns are still shaking out from the pandemic

  In places like Miami and Tampa, we’ve already seen massive price run-ups.

  
  That’s not where the wave is forming. That’s where it’s already crashed onto the beach.

  If you’re buying now, you may be buying at the peak of a local cycle—
  Not the beginning.

  Ask yourself:

  “Am I buying ahead of the next wave—or after it’s already hit?”

  An ideal time to buy is when you can:

  • Get a good deal

  • Lock in reasonable financing

  • And plan to stay for at least 7–10 years

  If you can’t check those boxes?
  It might be smarter to sit tight and strengthen your position.

  Step 4: Understand the True Cost of Homeownership

  This is the part most people skip.

  Buying a home isn’t just about the mortgage payment.

  It’s about:

  • Rising property taxes

  • Surging insurance premiums—especially in coastal states like FL and CA

  • Ongoing maintenance and surprise repairs

  • HOA dues, landscaping, pest control, roof replacement, the list goes on…

  Owning a home isn’t passive.
  It’s like running a small business called “Your House, Inc.”

  And spoiler alert:
  That business doesn’t always turns a profit unless you time the market perfectly or hold for a long period of time.

  If you’re going to buy, you have to go in eyes wide open.
  Because the hidden costs will catch you slipping if you don’t.

  Step 5: Invest the Difference

  Now here’s where renting starts to shine—if you play it right.

  Let’s go back to that $3,400 monthly gap between renting and buying.

  If you’re renting and not investing that difference?
  You're missing the entire point.

  But if you automate it, if you set it and forget it into a diversified portfolio—
  That’s where the real magic happens.

  It’s not about avoiding ownership.
  It’s about redirecting your dollars to build wealth more efficiently.

  Because sometimes the best investment isn’t bricks and mortar—it’s stocks and discipline.

  But you have to be intentional.
  You can’t just save it. You have to invest it.

  Recap: The Playbook

  Here’s the full Rent vs. Buy Playbook:

  1.    Know Your Why

  o    Be honest about your motivations. Don’t buy to flex.

  2.    Run the Numbers

  o    Monthly cost to own vs. rent. Run multiple return scenarios.

  3.    Evaluate Timing

  o    Are you early in the market or buying after the hype?

  4.    Understand Ownership Costs

  o    Taxes, insurance, maintenance—don’t underestimate them.

  5.    Invest the Difference

  o    Automate it. Let compounding do its job.

  
  So listen, if you’re sitting in your apartment or current home thinking,

  “Am I missing out by not buying right now?”

  You’re not behind.
  You’re not being reckless.
  You’re being smart.

  Because building wealth isn’t about keeping up with the Joneses.
  It’s about playing your game, with your numbers, on your timeline.

  And when you do that?
  You often win in the long run.

  Stick with me, because up next in our Bo Know$ segment, I’m bringing in a little Steph Curry, a Finals meltdown, and the comeback that defined a dynasty—
  And what it can teach you about mastering your wealth game under pressure.

  Let’s go.

  
  Alright—it’s that time…

  Welcome to Bo Know$—where we take real-life wealth lessons and bring them to life through sports, food, or whatever else brings the heat.

  And today?
  We’re going courtside.

  Because it’s NBA Finals season, and there’s no better way to talk about wealth-building under pressure…
  than with a story about Steph Curry.

  Let’s rewind to 2016.

  The Golden State Warriors were flying high.

  • Fresh off a championship

  • 73–9 regular season—the best in NBA history

  • Steph wins unanimous MVP

  • They cruise to the Finals

  • Go up 3–1 on the Cavaliers

  They’re basically a layup away from back-to-back titles.

  But then…LeBron James flips the script.

  Cleveland storms back. Game 7 happens. And the Warriors go down in one of the biggest collapses in Finals history.

  Steph got dragged.

  “Not clutch.”
  “Overrated.”
  “Can’t carry a team.”

  The media lost its mind.
  The haters came out.

  But here’s what Steph didn’t do:
  He didn’t blow up the playbook.
  He didn’t ditch his style.
  He didn’t chase headlines or force a trade.

  What did he do?

  He stayed calm.
  He trusted the process.
  He doubled down on what worked.

  And a year later?

  • KD joins the squad

  • They win 3 more championships

  • Steph becomes a Finals MVP

  • And he secures his place as one of the greatest to ever do it

  Now let’s bring this back to your financial life.

  Right now, this housing market? It feels like you're down 3-1 in Game 5.

  You’re seeing other people buy.
  Your friends are flashing keys and closing gifts on social media.
  Headlines are screaming about rising prices and “don’t miss out.”

  And maybe you’re sitting on the sideline thinking:

  “Am I falling behind?”
  “Should I do something—anything—before I miss my shot?”

  But here’s the deal:

  If you panic-buy, or change your strategy out of fear…
  You can wreck your wealth plan faster than the Warriors lost that 3–1 lead.

  Patience doesn’t just sound good.
  It’s a winning play.

  Just like Steph didn’t force the issue—You don’t need to rush into the market just because everyone else is moving.

  Instead:

  • Keep building

  • Keep stacking cash

  • Keep investing the difference

  • Stay focused on the long game

  Because when the timing is right—when the market shifts—you’ll be ready to strike.

  Not out of desperation…
  But from a place of power.

  And that? That’s championship-level strategy.

  Alright, team—let’s run a quick two-minute drill to close it out.

  Here’s what we covered today:

  The housing market is in gridlock:

  • Prices are high

  • Rates are high

  • Supply is tight

  • Emotions are running hot

  But you? You don’t need to follow the crowd.

  Because pressure doesn’t equal progress.

  If you’re renting right now, you’re not behind.
  You might actually be ahead—as long as you’re investing that difference.

  If you’re considering buying?
  Slow down.
  Run the numbers.
  And make sure you’re buying the right home, for the right reasons, at the right time.

  And if you’re unsure?

  Head to JuliusWealthAdvisors.com
  Download our complimentary Wealth Building Playbook—it’s packed with the tools and strategies to help you build wealth by choice, not chance.

  Or give us a call. 201-408-4644

  Or, send us an email: info@juliuswealth.com

  We’ll walk through your game plan and figure out the best next move together.

  Until next time—remember this:

  Wealth is built by choice, not chance
  Renting isn’t weakness—it’s a weapon
  And staying disciplined—just like Steph Curry—is how you build your dynasty

  Catch you next time on The Big Bo $how.

  Keep living a life of integrity, obtaining as much knowledge as possible, and always live a life you are passionate about.

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The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this podcast is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Julius Wealth Advisors, LLC (“JWA”) is a registered investment adviser located in Englewood, NJ. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training.  The publication of The Big Bo $how should not be construed by any consumer or prospective client as JWA’s solicitation or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice over the Internet. A copy of JWA’s current written disclosure statement as set forth on Form ADV, discussing JWA’s business operations, services, and fees is available from JWA upon written request.  JWA does not make any representations as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, or completeness of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to or incorporated herein.  All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. JWA is neither your attorneys nor your accountants and no portion of this podcast should be interpreted by you as legal, accounting, or tax advice.  We recommend that you seek the advice of a qualified attorney and accountant.