Episode 44

Fear & Greed in 2025: The S&P 7, AI Hype & the Market Areas Investors Overlook

Episode Description

Fear and greed are undefeated — and they quietly influence more investment decisions than any headline or market forecast.

In this episode, Jason Blumstein, CFA explores how these emotions are showing up across today’s markets and what disciplined investors should understand as we head deeper into 2025.

You’ll learn:

• Why the S&P 7 dominate returns — and what that concentration signals

• How AI-driven spending is shaping corporate behavior

• Where fear may be creating overlooked global market opportunities

• How investors can stay grounded through emotional cycles

• Why your playbook matters more than any single market moment

This episode blends behavioral finance, real market data, and the mindset of a seasoned player-coach — helping high-earning professionals build wealth by choice, not by chance.

Episode Transcript

If you’ve made money this year, good. If you think you’re unstoppable… that’s the danger.

Because fear and greed are undefeated. They don’t care about your confidence, your charts, or your track record. And if you don’t manage them… they will absolutely manage you.

Welcome back to The Big Bo $how, where we build wealth by choice, not by chance.

Today we’re breaking down the two emotions that quietly move every market cycle—especially this one—and how disciplined investors stay in control when everyone else is getting played.

Let’s get into it.

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  SEGMENT 1 — FEAR & GREED: THE PLAYERS YOU CAN’T BENCH

  Let’s start with a truth I’ve learned the hard way—in football, in business, and in investing:

  When emotions take over, execution disappears.

  Markets rely on math. Prices move on emotion.

  History is basically one long highlight reel of fear and greed trading possessions.

  Don’t believe me? Let’s go to the tape.

  First, The Dot-Com Era — Greed’s Greatest Hits

  Late 1990s. Greed lined up and ran the same play over and over:

  “Tech can only go up.”

  Companies with no revenue doubled overnight. If a business added “.com” to its name, the stock soared.

  Then reality set in… “Wait… you actually have to make money to have a viable business?”

  Fear stormed the field, and the whole thing collapsed faster than a rookie QB holding the ball too long.

  Then, 2008 — When Leverage Met Fear

  Housing was “where it was at.” Didn’t matter if you had no down payment, no documentation, no income.

  Greed overleveraged the entire financial system:

  • Mortgages

  • Banks

  • Wall Street products nobody could explain

  And when fear spotted the first crack in the foundation?

  Game over. The entire house of cards came tumbling down.

  Fast-forward to Covid. 2020 — A Tale of Two Emotions

  Fear shuts down the world. Markets drop at record speed.

  And months later? Greed goes on an absolute heater:

  • Meme stocks

  • Crypto manias

  • NFTs

  • “To the moon” chants

  Different assets. Same two emotions.

  Greed convinces people they’re geniuses on the way up. Fear convinces them they’re idiots on the way down.

  The details change—new tech, new headlines, new narratives—but the emotional pattern never does.

  I’ve felt this too – early in my career, I confused a bull market with being a genius. It took a few bruises to realize it wasn’t my brilliance, it was the environment.

  Which brings us to today… 2025. Where greed has quietly taken the lead again.

  The S&P is high-fiving itself. AI is being talked about like it’s oxygen—apparently, you can’t live without it. IPOs are crawling their way back into the spotlight.

  And investors are starting to whisper the four most dangerous words on Wall Street:

  “This time it’s different.”

  But cycles don’t disappear. They disguise themselves. They whisper instead of shout. They convince you you’re safe… right before they knock you down.

  That’s why recognizing fear and greed isn’t pessimistic—it’s protective.

  Because the investors who get hurt the most…are the ones who stop seeing the cycle.

  And here’s the kicker: Fear and greed aren’t hiding in the shadows today. They’re right out in the open—driving the exact parts of the market everyone feels safest owning.

  So let’s break down where these emotions are showing up right now…and what that means for your portfolio as we close out the year and head into 2026.

  Right after this quick break.

  SEGMENT 2 — FEAR & GREED IN TODAY’S MARKET

  Let’s talk about how these emotions are showing up right now—because the patterns are there, clear as day, if you’re willing to look.

  And they show up strongest in three places.

  1. The “S&P 7” Problem

  The S&P 500 is supposed to be a broad index of American businesses. But lately?

  It’s looked more like:

  “The S&P 7… plus everybody else.”

  Over the last few years, a tiny handful of mega-cap tech names have driven an outsized percentage of total returns. According to JPMorgan, over the past three years just seven stocks have powered more than half the gains.

  In football terms? It’s like running your entire 52-man roster through one player and hoping they never get hurt.

  It’s like saying:

  • Mahomes won every game single-handedly

  • Brady carried every championship

  • Jordan didn’t need Pippen, Rodman, Kerr, or Phil

  Maybe one game? Sure. But over a dynasty? Never.

  Are these seven companies incredible? In many ways, absolutely. Are they priced like nothing can ever go wrong? It certainly looks that way.

  And that’s where greed sneaks in. Greed whispers:

  • “Why diversify?”

  • “Why own anything else?”

  • “Just go all-in on what’s working.”

  • “If it keeps going up, you’ll look brilliant.”

  But that’s not diversification. That’s dependency.

  When seven companies are doing most of the scoring, you’re not diversified—you’re concentrated with better PR.

  2. The AI Funding Loop

  Now let’s talk about the hottest topic on the planet: AI.

  AI is real.
  AI is powerful.
  AI is reshaping industries everywhere.
  Heck, I use AI every day in my business.

  But emotionally? AI has become the new “can’t miss.”

  You’ve got:

  • Chipmakers funding cloud companies

  • Cloud companies funding chipmakers

  • Everyone building data centers like it’s a race to colonize Mars

  It’s a circular reference error…and instead of fixing it, markets are applauding it.

  Strong, historically disciplined companies are taking on tens of billions in new debt to chase AI infrastructure tied to massive partnerships.

  Smart move? Possibly.

  Guaranteed payoff? Absolutely not.

  It reminds me of the 2010s “Shale Revolution”:

  • Massive CapEx

  • Debt-fueled growth

  • “Growth at all costs” mentality

  • Very little regard for long-term return on capital

  Sound familiar? And what happened?

  Energy didn’t crash overnight. But over a decade later, investors were still waiting for the “automatic” payoff they were promised.

  AI isn’t dangerous. Believing AI guarantees you a payoff is.

  3. Where Fear Lives: Ignored Opportunities

  So where is fear today? Often in the places people have walked away from:

  • Areas that haven’t performed in years

  • Assets without a sexy narrative

  • Markets outside the U.S.

  Take emerging markets. Most investors treat EM like the dusty treadmill in the basement:

  “It’s probably useful… but I don’t feel like dealing with it.”

  But here’s the math:

  • S&P 500 P/E? ~28×

  • MSCI EM P/E? ~16×

  Same global economy. Almost half the price.

  That doesn’t mean EM is guaranteed to outperform next year — it just means you’re finally getting paid more reasonably for taking that risk.

  And here’s the irony: Back in 2009, the narrative was the exact opposite. Greed loved the BRICS. “Move abroad” was the consensus. The U.S. was supposedly stagnant.

  And what happened?

  Since 2010, the S&P 500 has outperformed emerging markets by nearly 8.5x.

  Now greed is crowding into U.S. megacaps…and fear has pushed investors out of EM entirely.

  And that’s often when opportunity quietly starts warming up.

  Greed creates premiums. Fear creates discounts. The smart investors? They flip that logic.

  So ask yourself:

  • Is your portfolio built on what’s worked… or what’s actually sustainable?

  • Are you diversified… or just concentrated in the best PR stories?

  • And are you ignoring the very places where fear has accidentally created the best setups?

  If you’re not sure — that’s exactly the kind of thing a real financial coach helps you figure out.

  Now… after the break, let’s take this back to the field in Bo Know$. Because nothing exposes fear and greed faster than the teams battling every Sunday.

  BO KNOW$ — FEAR, GREED & WINNING THE LONG GAME

  Alright, now let’s bring this back to the field — because fear and greed don’t just live on Wall Street. They live on every sideline, every huddle, every locker room, every Sunday.

  Look around the league right now. You’ve got teams like the Chiefs and Ravens grinding through a weird first half of the season.

  The Chiefs grinding through a rough stretch. The Ravens fighting through injuries and inconsistency. Neither team’s script has gone the way they drew it up.

  But here’s the difference:

  They don’t panic.
  They trust the system.
  They make adjustments.
  They stay the course.

  Lamar is coming back from injury. Rashee Rice is back from suspension and gives the Chiefs more firepower. They don’t burn the playbook because of one bad quarter — they tighten it.

  And that’s what discipline looks like.

  Then… you’ve got the other teams. You know exactly who I’m talking about.

  One blown coverage…one turnover…one ugly drive…

  And suddenly they’re firing coordinators, forcing deep shots, chasing the moment, and playing not to lose.

  That’s not coaching. That’s emotion.

  And investors do the exact same thing:

  • Up big? Greed: “Take more risk.”

  • Down bad? Fear: “Sell everything.”

  Same play, different field.

  But the championship teams? They don’t let the scoreboard call the plays.

  They trust their preparation. They trust their identity. They trust their system. They adjust — they don’t abandon.

  Great teams don’t let the scoreboard dictate their identity. Great investors don’t let the market tape dictate theirs.

  This is why I always come back to the same formula:

  Time + Discipline²

  Because discipline is your defense. It protects you when the market starts throwing curveballs.

  And time? Time is your offense. It compounds your smart decisions — even when emotions try to pull you off the field.

  Fear will show up. Greed will show up. They’re undefeated. They never take a bye week. But neither one has to run your offense.

  And look — if your financial game plan has been reactive lately…if you’ve been scoreboard-watching instead of system-running…if you’ve been chasing moments instead of sticking to preparation…

  That’s exactly the kind of thing we help people fix. Because real wealth isn’t built emotionally. Real wealth is built intentionally — with discipline, not impulse.

  Fear and greed never die. They’re the heartbeat of every market cycle — the fans in the stands who never go home.

  But wealth? Wealth gets built by the people who stay calm when everyone else is losing it.

  When too many investors believe risk is gone…that’s when it’s hiding in plain sight.

  And when fear freezes everyone else…that’s when opportunity steps onto the field unguarded.

  You can’t control the market’s emotions — just like a team can’t control the weather. But you can control your plan, your discipline, and your reaction.

  That’s what building wealth by choice — not chance — really means.

  So as we head toward year-end, take a timeout and ask yourself:

  • Is your portfolio being driven by emotion… or by intention?

  • Are you diversified… or dependent?

  • Are you disciplined… or drifting?

  Because the market’s going to keep playing. But only the prepared — only the disciplined — are the ones still standing when the clock hits zero.

  If you want to help make sure your wealth game plan is built to win all four quarters…
  let’s talk

  📞 201–408–4644
  📧 info@juliuswealth.com
  🌐 Or learn more about 360° Wealth at juliuswealthadvisors.com

  Let’s build your wealth by choice, not chance.

  Thanks for tuning in to The Big Bo $how.
  Until next time—

  Live with integrity.
  Never stop learning.
  And always pursue what you’re truly passionate about.

  Talk soon.

Disclosure:

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